As long as the Middle East arms race continues to accelerate, Iran will continue to demonstrate resolve, flexing their Shia Persian muscles while their Sunni Arab neighbors purchase muscle and fighters from the United States and other vendors.
Our defense industry will continue to profit from this regional arms race for years.
Strategically, we stand to be able to contain Iran very soundly. We cover their left and right flank well now (over our shoulder) from Iraq and Afghanistan and our navy dominates the region. We have Israel and their serious sense of urgency to defend and the willingness and capability to proactively strike. They must. They cannot wait to see the whites of the enemy’s eyes, so to speak. And as mentioned, our oil providing allies look to be taking expensive steps to maintain a first rate arsenal of military action figures.
Nuclear weapons abound on our side, Israel being a quiet club member, too. Iran, may be politically wobbly. While we continue our wishful thinking and bolstering our military security relationships and sales, our creditor, China, just may be the negotiator of the future in this hot but Cold-War-like chilly region. They will have the economic clout to act when it’s in their interests to do so.
Our only clout right now is our military industrial strength. We have no diplomatic corps anymore as our State Department over the past few years has become a Defense Department trailer park.
Iran owns the Shia narrative and they know it. To make that narrative credible, in the face of the Middle East arms build-up, they must continue to test missiles, and become a member of the nuclear club. Slipping into their shoes for a moment or two may feel awkward and unpatriotic, but we deserve to try to understand what they want and why they want it while keeping a steady hand upon our saber…our only instrument of national power right now.